Under the "dual control", my country's iron ore imports in the second half of the year will decrease by more than 150 million tons year-on-year

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, from January to July this year, China imported 650 million tons of iron ore, a year-on-year decrease of 1.5%. Among them, the imported iron ore in July was 88.506 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 21.4%, which was the second consecutive month of decline; the month-on-month decrease of 1% was the fourth consecutive month of decline. Under the background of the “dual control” policy of production capacity and output in the steel industry, what will be the situation of my country's iron ore imports in the second half of the year?

Generally speaking, imported iron ore, domestic iron ore, and steel scrap are the main components of iron in domestic crude steel. These three and the actual output of crude steel in my country constitute a balance between the supply and demand of iron. To analyze the iron ore import situation in the second half of the year, we must first analyze how much iron ore will my country need in the second half of this year?
　　At the beginning of this year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has made it clear that this year's crude steel output will fall year-on-year. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, my country's crude steel output in 2020 will be 1.065 billion tons. In the first half of this year, the country produced 563 million tons of crude steel, a year-on-year increase of 59.121 million tons, an increase of 11.80%. If the crude steel output in 2021 is the same as that in 2020, the crude steel output in the second half of 2021 will be maintained at about 502 million tons. In the second half of 2020, crude steel output was 566 million tons. Compared with the second half of 2020, in order to achieve the production control target, crude steel output in the second half of this year will have to drop by at least 64 million tons year-on-year. If we want to reduce the crude steel output by 20 million tons on the basis of 2020, the crude steel output in the second half of this year will have to drop by at least 84 million tons year-on-year.